Pot Odds & Expected Value (EV)
Understanding pot odds and expected value (EV) is essential for making mathematically sound decisions and maximizing long-term profitability.
Basic Probability Concepts for Poker
Probability plays a crucial role in poker, helping players make informed decisions based on the likelihood of different outcomes.
Outs
The number of cards left in the deck that can improve your hand.
More outs increase your chances of winning the hand.
Equity
Your share of the pot based on the probability of winning.
Equity helps determine profitable plays.
Rule of 2 & 4
Quick estimation of your odds to improve by multiplying outs.
Multiply outs by 2 for turn or 4 for turn + river.
How to Calculate Pot Odds
Pot odds compare the size of the bet to the size of the pot, helping determine if calling is profitable in the long run.
Formula
Pot Odds = (Current Pot Size / Bet to Call)
Compare pot odds with hand equity to decide whether to call.
Making Decisions
If pot odds are greater than your drawing odds, calling is profitable.
Pot odds help determine profitable bluffs and value bets.
Implied Odds
Consider future potential winnings when calling draws.
Implied odds justify calls even if immediate pot odds are unfavorable.
Comparing EV of Different Plays
Expected value (EV) helps determine whether a play will be profitable over the long run.
Positive EV (+EV)
A play that is expected to make money over time.
Always aim for +EV decisions.
Negative EV (-EV)
A play that is expected to lose money over time.
Avoid -EV plays unless used strategically.
EV Calculation
EV = (Probability of Winning x Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing x Amount Lost)
Understanding EV improves strategic decision-making.